Calgary Economic Outlook 2027

The system

How Calgary's economy works

Calgary is a head-office city for an industry whose prices are set abroad. Oil moves provincial royalties, corporate profits and investment within months; people and housing follow over years. Select a node to see the channel and the evidence behind it.

World oil priceSelect a node to see what drives it, what it drives, and the numbers from this edition that show the link at work.

The thesis in one paragraphThree shocks hit Calgary at once between 2022 and 2025: a federal immigration surge that made it Canada's fastest-growing big city, a construction response that was the largest in its history, and oil output that reached records while energy employment stayed flat. Growth is now slowing to a more ordinary 2–2.5% a year because the first shock is being reversed by policy. The second shock has left a housing surplus that is pushing rents and condo prices down. The third leaves the province's finances, and the city's downtown, as exposed to the price of a barrel as they were a decade ago.

Section 1 · Output

Growth without prosperity: output per person is a tenth below 2014

Alberta's economy grew 2.7% in 2025, the fourth straight year it outpaced Canada. But almost all of the growth since 2014 has come from adding people: output per person is still a tenth below its 2014 peak, and output per hour worked has not risen since 2017.

FindingAlberta's real GDP in 2025 was 10% above its 2014 level while its population grew 23%. Real GDP per person fell from $80,087 to $71,545 (−10.7%), a period in which Ontario's rose 6.7% and British Columbia's 12.2%. Calgary's growth model has shifted from adding capital (the oil sands build-out of 2005–2014) to adding workers.

Alberta has outgrown Canada for four straight years, after the deepest contractions of 2015–16 and 2020

Real GDP growth at basic prices, chained 2017 dollars, % change. 2025 is a preliminary estimate; 2026–2027 are forecasts (hollow points).

Why this mattersAlberta's growth is more volatile than any other large province because about a fifth of its real output is oil and gas extraction. The 2015–16 oil crash produced two consecutive years of −3.5%; no other large province contracted at all. For 2026, every forecast in the table below published since June (TD, ATB, the Treasury Board and, for Canada, the Bank of Canada) puts Alberta at 2.3–2.6% and Canada at 0.7–0.9%; for 2027 the ranges are 2.3–2.5% and 1.5–1.8%. Add the Calgary line: the City of Calgary's own estimate for the Calgary Economic Region is 3.7% for 2025, slowing to 2.0% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.

Real GDP per person: Alberta is the only large province still below its 2014 level

Real GDP at basic prices per person, indexed to 2014 = 100 (or in chained 2017 dollars). Alberta still has the highest output per person of any province: $71,545 in 2025 versus $55,426 in Ontario.

Why this mattersPer-capita output is the closest thing to a measure of prosperity in the national accounts. Alberta's decline reflects two things: the 2015 collapse in oil-sands construction, and population growth that outran output growth in 2023 and 2024. In 2025 per-capita output rose for the first time since 2022 (+0.2%, ATB Economics), because population growth slowed to 2.5% from 4.7%. If forecasters are right that growth holds near 2.3% while population grows about 1%, per-capita output would finally climb, but it would still take years to regain 2014.

Output per hour worked: high, but flat since 2017

Labour productivity, all industries, chained 2017 dollars of GDP per hour worked.

Why this mattersAlberta produces $78.3 of GDP per hour worked, 20% more than Canada ($65.0). Almost all of that premium is composition: oil and gas extraction produces $222 per hour, 2.8 times the provincial average, and its productivity rose 67% since 2011 as oil-sands projects moved from construction to steady-state operation. Outside the oil patch, the economy's productivity has stalled. Alberta's all-industries figure has been flat since 2017 ($78.7 then, $78.3 now) while Canada's rose 4.5% and British Columbia's 9.4%.

Investment: back to 2012 levels, still a fifth below 2014

Non-residential capital expenditures in Alberta, C$ billions, current dollars. 2025 preliminary; 2026 intentions.

Why this mattersAlberta's capital spending peaked at $97.8 billion in 2014, $61.0 billion of it in oil and gas. In 2025 the totals were $76.1 billion and $32.3 billion. Oil and gas capital spending is 47% below its peak in nominal terms even as production has risen by half, because the industry is operating assets rather than building them. 2026 intentions of $80.6 billion (+5.9%) would be the highest since 2014, but the mix has changed: in 2025, capital spending by transportation and warehousing firms rose 20% and by construction firms 25% while oil and gas spending slipped 1.6%, and the growth areas now are data centres and logistics.

What forecasters expect for 2026 and 2027

Real GDP growth and unemployment rate, as published, with forecast dates. Later vintages incorporate the 2026 oil-price spike; Calgary-specific forecasts come only from the City of Calgary.

Forecaster	Date	Geography	GDP 2026	GDP 2027	Unemployment 2026	Unemployment 2027	Note
ATB Economics	2026-09-24	Alberta	2.6%	2.3%	6.4%	–	Canada 0.9 / 1.5
TD Economics	2026-09-21	Alberta	2.3%	2.4%	6.6%	6.2%	Canada 0.9 / 1.6; 2028: 2.1
Alberta Treasury Board (Q1 fiscal update)	2026-08-27	Alberta	2.3%	2.5%	6.6%	5.9%	WTI assumption US$73.50
Alberta Budget 2026	2026-02-26	Alberta	1.8%	2.3%	6.6%	6.0%	WTI assumption US$60.50
City of Calgary (Calgary Economic Region)	2026-04	Calgary ER	2.0%	2.4%	6.6%	6.2%	Alberta 1.9 / 2.0; Canada 1.4 / 1.8
Bank of Canada MPR	2026-07-15	Canada	0.7%	1.8%	–	–	Pre-dates Q2 GDP surprise (+3.3% annualized)

Sources: TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast (Sept 21, 2026); ATB Economics, Alberta Economic Outlook (Sept 24, 2026); Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, 2026-27 First Quarter Fiscal Update (Aug 27, 2026) and Budget 2026 (Feb 26, 2026); City of Calgary, Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2026–2031 (Spring 2026); Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report (July 15, 2026).

Why this mattersThe direction of revisions tells you more than any single number. Alberta's 2026 forecasts were marked up through the year (Budget 1.8% in February, 2.3–2.6% by September) as oil averaged above US$80, while Canada's were marked down (1.4% in April, 0.9% by September) as US tariffs widened. The 2027 range for Alberta in this table is tight at 2.3–2.5%, and the City of Calgary has the region at 2.4%. All of these were prepared before the October 1 national-interest listing of the Pacific Link pipeline and the September 28 LNG Canada Phase 2 decision, which would mostly affect 2028 onward.

What it means for 2027

Expect Alberta and Calgary to outgrow Canada again in 2027, on roughly 2.4% growth, but not because the economy has become more productive. Per-capita gains will depend on population growth staying near 1–2% while output grows faster. The two things that could change the growth number materially are the oil price (see Section 5) and whether the pipeline and LNG decisions turn into construction spending in Alberta before 2028.

Section 2 · People

Canada's fastest-growing big city is being slowed by Ottawa

Calgary's metropolitan population grew 19% in four years, the fastest of any large Canadian city, and passed Ottawa–Gatineau to become the country's fourth-largest metro. Federal limits on temporary residents have since cut Alberta's population growth by two-thirds. The interprovincial inflow continues; the international inflow has fallen by almost two-thirds.

FindingThe 2023–24 surge was a federal policy event more than a Calgary event. Net international migration to Alberta fell from 140,950 (2023) to 52,897 (2025) as Ottawa cut temporary-resident numbers, while net interprovincial migration only halved (44,363 to 21,387) and Alberta still leads every province. Calgary's growth is slowing to the City's forecast of about 1.7% a year, below its 2.7% average since 2001, and the City expects household formation to fall from 33,600 in 2024 to about 10,000 a year through 2031.

Calgary's metro population nearly doubled since 2001, with the 2023–24 jump the largest on record

Population of the Calgary census metropolitan area, July 1 estimates (bars), with annual growth (line). 2026–2031 are City of Calgary forecasts (hollow).

Why this mattersThree growth episodes stand out: the 2006 oil boom (+3.5%), the 2013–14 boom (+3.4% and +3.1%) and the 2023–24 surge (+5.8% and +6.1%), the fastest 12-month growth Statistics Canada has recorded for any CMA since 2001. Each was followed by a sharp slowdown, but the earlier two were ended by oil prices and this one by immigration policy. Every part of the economy that scales with headcount, from retail sales and transit ridership to rental demand and the labour force, is adjusting from 6% growth to under 2%.

Where the people came from: international migration drove the surge and its reversal

Net migration to Alberta by source, persons per quarter (or per calendar year). International includes immigrants and net non-permanent residents.

Why this mattersAlberta has recorded the largest net inflow from other provinces of any province in every quarter since late 2022, with Ontario and British Columbia the main sources: in 2023 alone, 38,236 people moved from Ontario and 37,650 from BC. That flow responds to the gap between Calgary's housing costs and Toronto's or Vancouver's, which is still wide. The international flow responds to federal policy: the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan holds permanent residents at 380,000 a year nationally and cuts temporary arrivals to 385,000 in 2026, with a target of non-permanent residents below 5% of the population by 2027. In the second quarter of 2026 Alberta's net international migration was still positive (+10,770), but at less than a third of the 2023 pace.

Among 19 large metros, only Moncton grew faster than Calgary over four years

Population growth by census metropolitan area, July 2021 to July 2025 (or the latest single year).

Why this mattersIn 2024–25 Toronto's population did not grow at all (−992 people) and Vancouver's grew 0.2%, because both lost non-permanent residents and lost residents to other parts of their own provinces. Calgary and Edmonton kept growing at about 3%, still led by international arrivals, with interprovincial inflows on top. The single-year view shows how unusual that was.

Still young, but ageing: the 65-plus share has risen from 9% to 14%

Share of Calgary CMA population by age group, July 1 estimates.

Why this mattersCalgary's median age was 38.0 at the 2021 Census against 41.6 for Canada, and 30.6% of residents were aged 25–44, the prime working and home-buying years, compared with 26.6% nationally. That profile supports labour-force growth and housing demand even as migration slows. But the seniors' share has risen from 8.8% in 2001 to 14.0% in 2025, and the 0–14 share has fallen from 19.4% to 16.8%; health care is already Alberta's largest employer and the biggest source of new jobs since 2019.

What it means for 2027

The City of Calgary forecasts metro population growth of 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, with net migration to the city of 15,000–17,000 a year compared with 80,000 in 2024. Household formation of about 10,000 a year will sit well below the 24,000–25,000 homes completed in each of 2024 and 2025, which is the arithmetic behind rising vacancy in Section 4. The upside risk is interprovincial: if housing costs in Ontario and BC stay high and Alberta's unemployment keeps falling, the inflow from other provinces could rebuild. The downside is a federal policy that keeps tightening into 2027.

Section 3 · Labour

A labour market that added 200,000 jobs since 2019 and still saw unemployment rise

Calgary's employment grew 18.6% between 2019 and 2025, twice Edmonton's pace, and passed one million in January 2026. Unemployment still climbed from a low of 5.1% in August 2022 to 8.5% in mid-2024 because the labour force grew faster than hiring. It is now 6.7%, in the middle of the pack for Canadian cities, and falling.

Finding2024 was a labour-supply shock rather than a collapse in hiring. The Calgary region's labour force grew by 70,700 people (6.9%) in the year to December 2024 while employment grew 45,100 (4.7%), leaving 25,700 more people unemployed despite strong hiring. In the year to August 2026 the pattern reversed: employment +53,700 (+5.0%) outran the labour force (+4.1%), and the unemployment rate fell to 6.7% from 7.5%. Across Alberta since 2019 the jobs went to health care, construction, professional services and public administration; oil and gas added few, and its share of provincial employment has fallen from a peak of 8.0% in 2012 to 5.1%.

Unemployment: three shocks in a decade, and a labour market now absorbing the third

Unemployment rate, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, %. Calgary CMA since 2011; Edmonton CMA, Alberta and Canada for comparison.

Why this mattersThe 2016 peak (10.6%) was an oil-price shock that destroyed jobs. The 2020 peak (15.5%) was the pandemic. The 2024–25 peak (8.5% in June 2024, 8.1% in September 2025) was different: employment kept rising throughout. The current 6.7% is above the August 2022 low of 5.1% but below Toronto (6.8%), Edmonton (6.9%) and Ottawa (7.4%). Forecasters expect Alberta's rate to average 6.4–6.6% in 2026 and 5.9–6.2% in 2027; the City of Calgary projects 6.6% and 6.2% for the region.

Why unemployment rose in 2024: the labour force grew 1.5 times faster than jobs

Calgary Economic Region, December-to-December change, thousands of persons (three-month average, not seasonally adjusted). The last bar is August 2025 to August 2026.

Why this mattersAn unemployment rate can rise while jobs are being created if newcomers enter the labour force faster than employers hire. In 2024 the working-age population of the region grew by 76,100 and the labour force by 70,700 (figures as first published; Statistics Canada's annual revision later raised the 2024 levels, and the 2025 bar uses the revised base). In 2025 participation fell (from 70.0% to 68.3%) and the rate eased without strong hiring. In 2026 participation recovered to 71.7% and hiring accelerated, so the rate fell because of hiring rather than withdrawal.

Calgary's unemployment rate is now mid-table among Canadian cities

Unemployment rate by census metropolitan area, August 2026, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted.

Why this mattersIn 2024 the City of Calgary's own labour review titled a chart "Calgary had the second highest unemployment rate among major cities in Canada". Two years later the highest rates are in Kelowna (9.0%), Oshawa (8.8%) and London (8.5%), and Calgary (6.7%) sits between Vancouver and Montréal (6.3–6.4%) and Toronto, Edmonton and Ottawa (6.8–7.4%). Statistics Canada cautions that CMA estimates move with small samples; the ranking is a snapshot, not a trend.

Where Alberta's jobs went: health care, professional services, construction and public administration

Employment by industry in Alberta, August of each year, not seasonally adjusted. Choose a view: employment shares over 20 years, the change over a period, or the level of selected industries. Alberta is used because the equivalent Calgary CMA series (Statistics Canada 14-10-0098-01) could not be accessed for this edition; Calgary's own year-over-year changes are shown in the data table.

Why this mattersBetween August 2019 and August 2026 Alberta added 359,600 jobs. Health care and social assistance added 108,400 of them, professional, scientific and technical services 58,700, finance and insurance 36,400, construction 34,800 and public administration 31,800. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction added 4,700 and employs fewer people (135,800) than it did in 2014 (179,500), even though production is up by half. In the Calgary region the past year's gains were led by construction (+22,500) and health care (+22,500), while public administration shed 11,200. Employment has diversified; as Section 6 shows, output, exports and corporate value have not.

Alberta's wage premium over Canada has shrunk from 23% to 4%

Average weekly earnings (all employees, including overtime), Alberta and Canada, C$, with the Alberta premium in %. Annual means of monthly data; 2026 is January–July.

Why this mattersIn 2014 the average Alberta paycheque was 22.7% above the national average; in 2025 it was 4.2% above, and in mid-2026 about 3.5%. Nominal earnings growth in Alberta trailed Canada's in every year from 2015 to 2025. Adjusted for inflation, Alberta weekly earnings fell about 3% between 2019 and 2025 and are falling again in 2026 (earnings +1.9% year to date against inflation of 3%). In Calgary the average hourly wage of employees has been stuck at about $40.60 since October 2025, and in August 2026 it was just 0.2% above a year earlier (City of Calgary Labour Market Review). Rapid labour-force growth has kept wages in check; the slowdown in population growth should start to change that in 2027.

Participation and employment rates: an ageing province works less

Alberta, August of each year, seasonally adjusted, %.

Why this mattersAlberta's participation rate in August 2026 (68.7%) was the lowest for any August since 1977, down from a peak of 74.7% in 2007. Part of the decline is ageing, part is discouraged younger workers: youth unemployment was 15.3% in Alberta and 16.3% in Calgary in August 2026, roughly double the overall rate. A lower participation rate flatters the unemployment rate; it also means the province has fewer workers per resident to support growth, which is why employers continue to recruit from other provinces.

What it means for 2027

With population growth slowing to under 2%, the labour force will grow by perhaps 20,000–25,000 a year instead of 70,000, and employers who add 2–3% to payrolls will pull the unemployment rate down toward 6%. The risks run both ways: a lower oil price would hit the professional-services and head-office jobs that depend on energy profits, while large construction projects (pipeline, LNG, data centres, the Green Line) would tighten the trades market that is already at a record 286,000 construction jobs in Alberta. Wage growth, flat in real terms for most of the decade, is the indicator to watch for a labour market that has finally rebalanced.

Section 4 · Housing

Calgary built its way out of a shortage and into a surplus

In 2025 the Calgary region started 27,684 homes, more than in any year in CMHC's records back to 1990, more than Toronto, and 62% above the 2006 boom peak. Purpose-built rental starts rose tenfold in six years. With population growth slowing, 2026 completions are running at more than two new homes for every new household, vacancy is the highest among the six largest rental markets, and asking rents and condo prices are falling.

FindingThe supply response was unusually fast and unusually tilted to rental and apartment units. Completions rose 64% in a single year, from 15,111 (2023) to 24,732 (2024), held at 24,836 in 2025, roughly double the 2021 level, while the City's estimate of household formation fell from 33,600 (2024) to 18,800 (2025) and about 10,000 a year from 2026. The result is a market that is correcting through quantity rather than price: rental vacancy rose from 1.4% to 5% in two years, asking rents are down 4.5% year over year, apartment prices are down 8%, but detached prices are flat and ownership costs take 41% of median income, against 64% in Toronto and 84% in Vancouver.

Housing starts: a record 2025, built increasingly for renters

Housing starts in the Calgary CMA by intended market, units. 2026 is January–August; CMHC and City forecasts for 2026–2031 are in the data table.

Why this mattersPurpose-built rental was 0.2% of Calgary starts in 2005 and 35.5% in 2025 (9,841 units). Two things changed: federal and provincial incentives for rental construction after 2021, and a surge in demand from newcomers who rent first. Starts fell 19% in the first eight months of 2026 and rental starts fell 30% in the first half, which CMHC describes as a return from record highs rather than a downturn. It forecasts 22,000 starts in 2026, 21,000 in 2027 and 19,500 in 2028; the City of Calgary expects the city proper to fall from 23,400 to about 15,000 by 2031.

In 2026, completions are running at more than twice the pace of new households

Homes completed in the Calgary CMA versus households formed in the City of Calgary, units per year. 2026 completions are January–August; household formation from 2026 is the City's forecast.

Why this mattersThe two series use different geographies (the CMA adds Airdrie, Cochrane, Chestermere, Okotoks, High River and rural Rocky View and Foothills to the city) and different concepts, so the gap is indicative, not exact. But the direction is unambiguous. Over 2022–2025 the region completed 78,320 homes (and started 88,938); over 2023–2025 the city added about 81,000 households. Those totals are close, which is the point: supply caught up with the surge just as the surge ended. In 2026, with 25,049 units still under construction (17,698 of them apartments) and household formation near 10,000, the surplus is widening. This is why rents, condo prices and vacancy are moving in the tenant's and buyer's favour while population is still growing.

Thirty-five years of Calgary rents: vacancy swings with migration, rent follows with a lag

CMHC October survey, Calgary CMA, row and apartment structures: vacancy rate (%) and average two-bedroom rent (C$ per month), as two panels on their own scales.

Why this mattersCalgary's rental market is more volatile than any other large Canadian city's because its population swings more. Vacancy was 0.5% in the 2006 boom, 7.0% in the 2016 bust, 1.4% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2025. Rents respond with a lag: the average two-bedroom rent rose 15.6% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2024, then just 1.7% in 2025, and listings-based asking rents were 4.5% below a year earlier in August 2026. The purpose-built universe grew 10.8% in 2025 to 67,980 units, the fastest growth in decades, and CMHC expects vacancy of 5.9% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027.

Prices: a two-speed correction, with apartments down 8% and detached homes flat

CREB benchmark price, City of Calgary, C$. Total residential by month, or the four property types.

Why this mattersThe total benchmark peaked at $605,300 in June 2024 and was $566,700 in September 2026, 6.4% lower, with the year-over-year decline narrowing from −4.7% in January to −0.8%. The split by type follows the supply: apartments (−8.3% y/y) and row homes (−5.5%) are where the construction boom concentrated; detached (−1.0%) and semi-detached (+0.1%) barely moved. Sales in 2025 fell 16%, and months of supply rose from 1.6 in 2024 to 3.0 in 2025 and 3.9 in September 2026, a balanced market. The City of Calgary forecasts benchmark growth of 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

Ownership costs take 41% of a Calgary household's income, half Vancouver's burden

RBC aggregate affordability measure: ownership costs for an average home as a share of median pre-tax household income, Q2 2026, %.

Why this mattersAffordability is Calgary's single largest competitive advantage over the cities it draws people from, and the supply boom has protected it. Calgary's 41.3% is close to its own long-run average of 39.7%, while Toronto (64.1%) and Vancouver (83.9%) remain far above theirs. The City of Calgary's price-to-income ratio fell from 5.4 at the end of 2024 to 4.9 a year later. Posted five-year mortgage rates have been stuck at 6.09% since May 2025, and the risk for 2027 is a Bank of Canada hike rather than a cut.

Calgary builds three times as many homes per resident as Toronto

Housing starts per 10,000 residents, first half of 2026, by census metropolitan area.

Why this mattersIn 2025 Calgary started 27,684 homes to Toronto's 26,087, the first time it has out-built a metro almost four times its size. Toronto's starts have fallen 45% since 2023 as condo pre-sales collapsed; Calgary's rose 41%. Land, approval times and a construction industry sized for boom-and-bust explain most of the difference. The same flexibility that produced the surplus will let supply fall quickly: CMHC credits Calgary and Edmonton with "the strongest improvements in construction timelines" in the country.

Office-to-residential conversions: 15% of the 2031 target complete, 45% approved

Downtown office space under the City's conversion program, millions of square feet: completed projects, all approved projects (including the completed ones), and the 6-million-square-foot target for 2031.

Why this mattersEight projects are complete (925,000 sq ft, about 800 homes and 226 hotel rooms); the 21 approved projects, which include those eight, cover 2.68 million sq ft and 2,667 homes, backed by an estimated $805 million of private investment. CBRE credits Calgary with nearly half of all office-to-residential conversions in Canada since 2021. Against a downtown inventory of roughly 41 million sq ft with 29% vacant, the program is meaningful but not decisive; the 6-million-square-foot target by 2031 would remove about one-seventh of the stock.

What it means for 2027

Expect a renter's and buyer's market through 2027: CMHC projects vacancy of 6.2% in October 2027 and two-bedroom rents near $1,980, while the City forecasts benchmark price growth of under 2%. Starts will fall toward 20,000 and construction employment, at record levels in 2026, will stop growing. The variables that would change this are population (a renewed interprovincial inflow would absorb units quickly, as 2023 showed) and interest rates (a hike would weigh on the ownership market just as apartment supply peaks).

Section 5 · Energy

Record output, flat jobs and a treasury that swings $680 million per dollar

Alberta produced a record 4.4 million barrels a day of crude oil and marketable bitumen in December 2025 (Alberta Economic Dashboard, the same basis as the charts, which average 4.1 million for 2025; the regulator's raw-bitumen basis runs about 3% higher), and the pipelines to carry it are nearly full. The industry employs fewer people than it did in 2014 and invests half as much. The 2026 war in the Middle East pushed WTI from US$65 to above US$100 and turned a budgeted $9.4-billion provincial deficit into a $2-billion surplus within six months.

FindingCalgary's energy economy has become a volume-and-margin business rather than a jobs business. Production is up 49% since 2014 while sector employment is down 5% (annual average) to 24% (August-to-August). The money flows through royalties, corporate profits and dividends instead of payrolls, which is why a US$30 move in oil shows up first in the provincial budget and head-office earnings and only later, and more faintly, in Calgary's labour market. Export capacity, the binding constraint of 2018, is no longer binding: Trans Mountain ran at 94% in the second quarter of 2026, the WCS discount in 2025 was the narrowest since 2017, and several expansions plus the Pacific Link pipeline are in motion.

Twenty years of oil prices: four shocks, and a discount that TMX finally narrowed

WTI (annual average) and Western Canadian Select (monthly), US$ per barrel. Use the range buttons to zoom; the 2026 spike is annotated.

Why this mattersAlberta sells heavy oil at a discount to WTI that depends on pipeline space. The discount averaged US$26.77 in 2018, when pipelines were full and rail set the marginal price, and US$11.69 in 2025 after the Trans Mountain expansion added 590,000 barrels a day of capacity in May 2024, the narrowest since 2017. In the 2026 shock WTI averaged US$102 in May and settled at US$91.11 on October 2 after China halted fuel exports and the G7 pledged a 100-million-barrel stock release. Alberta's fiscal year began with WTI averaging US$88–93 in April–June (sources differ; see the methodology notes); the province had budgeted US$60.50.

Production up by half since 2014; jobs down

Alberta oil production, marketable basis (thousand barrels per day), and employment in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction (persons, August of each year), indexed to 2014 = 100 or as levels.

Why this mattersAlberta's oil production grew from 2.8 million barrels a day in 2014 to 4.1 million in 2025 (oil sands alone from 2.2 million to 3.5 million) while the sector's August employment fell from 179,500 to 135,800. Annual-average employment tells a milder story (170,100 in 2014 to about 161,000 in 2024) but the same direction. Producers have consolidated (Cenovus closed its $8.6-billion purchase of MEG Energy in November 2025), automated and shifted from construction to operations. The result for Calgary: energy income arrives as corporate earnings, royalties and dividends rather than wages, and the downtown office market has not recovered with production.

Export pipelines ran at 93% of their 5.25 million barrels a day of capacity in 2025; 2.75 million more is proposed

Western Canadian crude export pipelines: 2025 average flows by system (thousand barrels per day) and announced additions by earliest in-service year.

Why this mattersThe Alberta Energy Regulator puts 2025 export pipeline capacity at 5.25 million barrels a day with 93% average utilization; crude-by-rail fell to a 13-year low of 77,000 barrels a day. Analysts expect pipelines to be constrained again by the end of 2028 if production keeps growing 2–3% a year. The near-term additions are small optimizations (Trans Mountain +90,000 in 2027 and +210,000 by 2028; Enbridge +150,000 and +250,000). The transformative one is Pacific Link: one million barrels a day from Bruderheim to Roberts Bank, costed at C$35–44 billion, listed as a project of national interest on October 1, 2026, with conditions due by September 2027 and service in 2032–33. If it proceeds on that schedule, the engineering, procurement and financing work would begin landing in Calgary's head offices from 2027–28, well before any pipe is laid.

Alberta's budget balance tracks oil; spending sets the level

Alberta budget balance by fiscal year, C$ billions, with WTI (US$ per barrel): calendar-year averages for completed years and the fiscal plan's assumptions for forecast years. 2025-26 onward are Budget 2026 forecasts (the 2025-26 year-end results are not used in this edition); 2026-27 shows the August 2026 update, with the February plan marked.

Why this mattersBudget 2026, tabled in February at US$60.50 oil, forecast a $9.4-billion deficit. The August fiscal update, with WTI averaging US$88–93 in the first quarter (sources differ) and assumed at US$73.50 for the year, forecast a $2.0-billion surplus: an $11.4-billion swing, $9.7 billion of it from non-renewable resource revenue, which rose to $23.0 billion or 27% of all revenue. The province's own sensitivity is $680 million per US$1 on WTI and $670 million per US$1 on the heavy-oil discount. Alberta has no sales tax and the lowest debt of any province (net debt about 8% of GDP), so the volatility is absorbed by the balance rather than by taxes; the Heritage Fund, Alberta's long-term savings fund, held $31.9 billion at the end of 2025 against a legislated goal of $250 billion by 2050.

What a barrel is worth to the provincial treasury

Illustrative arithmetic using the Budget 2026 sensitivity of $680 million of revenue per US$1 of WTI, relative to the August 2026 assumption of US$73.50. Linear, and ignores the heavy-oil discount, the exchange rate and royalty tiers.

Sources: Alberta Budget 2026 sensitivities as summarized by National Bank Economics (Feb 26, 2026); 2026-27 First Quarter Fiscal Update (Aug 27, 2026). The August update did not republish the sensitivity table; sensitivities change with the price level.

Exports are diversifying by destination; the product mix has not changed

Alberta merchandise exports: the share going to the United States and the energy share of all exports (%), with exports to China (C$ billions); or the value by destination.

Why this mattersThe United States took 88.7% of Alberta's exports in 2024, 85.4% in 2025 and 83.3% in the first half of 2026, the lowest in data back to 2010, because oil loaded at Trans Mountain's Westridge terminal goes mostly to Asia (65% of cargoes). Exports to China rose 50% to $10.2 billion in 2025 and 84% in the first seven months of 2026. But energy was still 76% of everything Alberta sold abroad in 2025, a share that has not fallen below 65% in two decades. Pacific Link and LNG Canada Phase 2 would push the destination shift further; nothing on the horizon changes the product mix.

Data centres have asked for more power than Alberta's entire peak load

Large-load connection requests to the Alberta Electric System Operator versus provincial peak demand and the interim limit, megawatts.

Why this mattersTwenty-nine data-centre proposals totalling more than 16 gigawatts have asked to connect to a grid whose peak load is about 12 gigawatts. The AESO will allow only 1,200 megawatts of new large loads before 2028, already allocated to Meta's Sturgeon County campus (through Pembina's 970-megawatt gas-fired Project Greenlight) and a Keephills project. Everything else must bring its own generation. For Calgary this is a supply-chain and services opportunity (gas turbines, pipelines, engineering, finance) more than a direct one: the largest projects are north of Edmonton, and the local build is eStruxture's $750-million, 90-megawatt facility in Rocky View County.

What it means for 2027

Alberta's fiscal plan assumes WTI of US$67 in 2027-28; the Alberta Energy Regulator's price deck sits higher (US$73 for 2027). Every US$10 either way is roughly $7 billion of provincial revenue, the difference between a comfortable surplus and spending restraint, and the first-order driver of corporate profits in Calgary's head offices. Production will keep rising 2–4% a year into pipeline space that tightens again by late 2028. Watch the Pacific Link conditions document (due September 2027), the Pathways Alliance oil-sands carbon-capture agreements (due November 15, 2026) and the LNG Canada Phase 2 construction start for the timing of the next investment cycle.

Section 6 · The new economy

Downtown, logistics and the diversification question

Calgary's labour market has diversified; its capital base has not. Energy's share of Alberta jobs has fallen in every cycle since 2012 while health, professional services and logistics have grown, yet energy is still 76% of Alberta's exports, 19% of its real output, 27% of provincial revenue and 83% of the market value of Calgary's listed companies.

FindingCalgary's most visible structural change is physical. Downtown office vacancy, 29.2% in mid-2026, is the highest of any big-city downtown in Canada (only Waterloo Region and London, among the markets CBRE tracks, are emptier) and has barely moved from its 2021 peak of 32.7%, because energy tenants went from 57% of downtown space in 2012 to 32% in 2021 and never came back. Meanwhile the industrial market grew to 164.6 million square feet, equal to Edmonton's and the only big Canadian market where availability fell in 2025, as the city became the distribution point for Western Canada. The office problem and the warehouse boom are the same story: energy's money no longer needs the floor space, and the population's goods do.

Downtown office vacancy: above 27% since 2017, with the first positive quarter since 2024

Vacancy rate for downtown Calgary office space (CBRE definition: head-lease plus sublet space as a share of inventory), year-end unless marked. The Avison Young series, on a larger inventory, runs 2–3 points lower and is shown for reference.

Why this mattersDowntown vacancy was under 10% at the end of 2014 (on Altus Group's measure). The oil crash, the pandemic and energy consolidation (Canadian Natural is vacating 650,000 sq ft in Bankers Hall and TD Square in 2026 after moving into the former Shell Centre) kept it near 30% for a decade. Across the Calgary office market as a whole, the first half of 2026 brought 726,000 sq ft of net absorption (space newly leased less space vacated), already more than the whole of 2023; downtown's second quarter was its first positive one since late 2024, led by the top-grade towers. The sublet share of vacant space is still rising (17.4%) as energy firms shed space. Suburban Calgary (16.0% vacant) is now healthier than suburban Toronto or Montréal, and Calgary's overall office vacancy (24.1%) is the lowest since early 2020. The 2026 assessment roll cut office values another 4% while industrial rose 3%.

Only Waterloo Region and London have emptier downtowns than Calgary

Downtown office vacancy by market, Q2 2026, %.

Why this mattersVancouver (12.2%) and Toronto (14.1%) have downtown markets where new towers still lease; Calgary (29.2%), Waterloo Region (30.0%) and London (29.6%) do not. The national rate is 17.8%. Calgary's gap is structural: its downtown was built for an energy industry that occupied 57% of its space in 2012 and 32% by 2021. Conversions, demolitions and the Green Line, the new LRT line now routed on the surface through downtown and opening in 2031, are the policy response; the market response is rents low enough to attract engineering, education and public-sector tenants.

Industrial space: 164 million square feet, and the only big market where availability fell in 2025

Industrial availability rate by market, Q1 2026, % of inventory. Availability counts space being marketed, including space still occupied; physical vacancy in Calgary is 4.0%.

Why this mattersCalgary's industrial inventory grew from 156.8 million sq ft at the end of 2023 to 164.6 million in early 2026 after 6.0 million sq ft of new supply in 2023 and 5.6 million in 2024, the second- and third-largest years on record. The market absorbed it: 4.9 million sq ft of net absorption in 2024 and 2.5 million in 2025, and availability fell to 5.3% in 2025 while rising in the other big markets CBRE tracks. Net rents of $11.21 per sq ft are about three-quarters of the national average. Transportation and warehousing employment in the Calgary CMA jumped 22% in the year to April 2024, and the 1,287-acre rail-served Prairie Economic Gateway east of the city received its land-use approvals in 2025.

The diversification scorecard: energy's weight by six yardsticks

Energy's weight in Alberta's economy, and in Calgary's corporate base, by different yardsticks, %. The employment share falls; the output, export and revenue shares do not.

Sources: Statistics Canada 14-10-0022-01 (employment, August values), 36-10-0402-01 (GDP by industry, chained and current dollars), 12-10-0119-01 (merchandise exports), all via the Alberta Economic Dashboard; Government of Alberta 2026-27 Q1 Fiscal Update (resource revenue 27% of revenue); City of Calgary Fall 2025 outlook (energy = 83% of the market capitalization of 218 Calgary-based public companies).

Why this mattersDiversification is usually asserted, rarely measured. Measured by jobs, output, exports and revenue, Alberta's dependence on oil and gas has fallen only in employment (8.0% of jobs at the 2012 peak to 5.1% in 2026). The real-output share rose from 15.8% in 2007 to 18.6% in 2025 because production grew faster than the rest of the economy; the export share has sat between 65% and 79% for twenty years; the nominal share swings with price from 12.5% (2020) to 31.5% (2022). Technology is growing from a small base (Calgary attracted $371 million of venture capital across 57 deals in 2025, and Calgary Economic Development counts about 1,300 technology companies), but at the scale of a metro economy of about $129 billion (the Conference Board of Canada's estimate of Calgary's 2024 GDP, via Calgary Economic Development) it does not yet move these ratios.

Airport: a record 19.4 million passengers in 2025, with US traffic falling

Domestic passengers rose 3.9% and international 6.2% in 2025 while transborder fell 3.4%, then 7.1% in the first half of 2026 as Canadians cut US travel. First-half 2026 traffic was a record 9.25 million (+2.4%). YYC's $120-million AeroNex engine-maintenance facility with Lufthansa Technik is under construction.

Hotels: occupancy six points above 2019

Calgary hotel occupancy averaged 66.5% in 2025 against 60.5% in 2019, and 66.8% in January–July 2026. The BMO Centre expansion (opened June 2024) hosted 330 events in 2025; Alberta visitor spending reached a record $15.2 billion; international air visitors through YYC reached 988,000.

Transit ridership: back to 95% of 2019

Fare-based ridership reached 101 million in 2024, 95% of 2019, while total boardings (which count transfers) exceeded 2019. Downtown's recovery is a transit and an office story: the Green Line LRT's 17-kilometre first phase, now $6.25 billion and routed on the surface through downtown, opens in 2031.

What it means for 2027

Downtown vacancy will fall slowly, a point or two a year at best, driven by conversions and a tightening Class AA market rather than by energy hiring. Industrial will stay tight: with 4.7 million sq ft under construction and population growth slowing, availability should hold near 5% rather than fall further. The diversification ratios will not move in 2027; the question for the decade is whether the data-centre and logistics investment now under way becomes a second export base or another customer for the first one.

Section 7 · Households

Inflation came back through the gas pump, and wages have not kept up

Calgary's inflation rate was 3.8% in August 2026, 0.8 points above Canada's, even though rents in the city are falling. Gasoline, diesel, utilities and auto insurance did the lifting. Average weekly earnings in Alberta rose 1.9% in the first seven months of 2026; prices rose 3%. The province has Canada's highest delinquency rate on non-mortgage debt, and demand at the Calgary Food Bank has doubled in two years.

FindingCalgary's household squeeze has changed shape. In 2024 the city had the highest inflation of any CMA (3.4%) because rent inflation ran at 13–19% for most of the year. In 2026 rent inflation is negative (−0.5% in August) and the squeeze is energy: in Alberta's CPI, gasoline +22% year over year, diesel +52% and utilities +5.6%, plus the unwinding of the April 2025 carbon-tax cut from the base. Real wages fell in 2021, 2022 and 2023, recovered slightly, and are falling again. Calgary's median after-tax household income was the highest of the six largest metros at the 2021 Census, but it bought 5% less in 2020 than in 2015; Edmonton was the only other large metro where that was true.

Calgary inflation versus Canada: a shelter story in 2024, an energy story in 2026

Consumer price index, all items, year-over-year change, %. The Calgary rent component can be added as points for the months the City's inflation reviews reported it.

Why this mattersOne base effect and one price shock explain the 2026 jump from 2.2% in March to 3.3% in April and 4.2% in July. The federal consumer carbon charge was removed on April 1, 2025, which cut gasoline and natural-gas prices for twelve months of year-over-year comparisons; that cut dropped out of the base in April 2026. At the same time the war in the Gulf lifted pump prices: Calgary regular gasoline averaged $1.77 a litre in May 2026, 35% above a year earlier. Alberta's energy weight in the basket is larger than Canada's, so both effects hit harder here. Excluding food and energy, Alberta inflation was 3.0% against 2.1% nationally, with auto insurance (+17–23% in early 2026) the largest contributor outside food and energy.

Real weekly earnings in Alberta: down 3% since 2019

Growth in average weekly earnings versus consumer prices, Alberta, % per year. 2026 compares January–July earnings with January–August prices.

Why this mattersAlberta weekly earnings rose 16.6% between 2019 and 2025 while prices rose 20.4%, a real decline of about 3%. Canada's real earnings recovered faster in 2024–25. In 2026 Alberta wages are growing more slowly than Canada's (1.9% versus 3.1%) while its inflation is higher, so the gap is widening again. Real retail sales per Albertan were 7.8% below 2019 in 2025: headline retail growth has come from more people and higher prices rather than more spending per household, and the population support is now fading.

Highest median income among big cities, and one of only two that fell in real terms

Median after-tax household income in 2020 (bars, C$) and real change 2015–2020 (labels), by census metropolitan area.

Why this mattersThe 2021 Census caught Calgary between the oil crash and the pandemic: its median after-tax household income ($87,000) was still the highest of the six largest metros, but it had fallen 5.4% in real terms since 2015 while Toronto's rose 14% and Vancouver's 16%. The 2024 Canadian Income Survey shows Alberta ($85,300 median after-tax income for families and individuals) still highest among provinces. The next census-based comparison will show whether the 2022–25 boom restored the gap or merely stopped the decline.

Interest rates: on hold for a year, and the next move may be up

Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate, %, 2020–2026, with the posted five-year mortgage rate where available.

Why this mattersThe Bank of Canada cut from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025 and has held at 2.25% seven times since. The US Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16, 2026 for the first time since 2023, oil has pushed headline inflation to 3%, and markets priced the October 28 decision as a coin flip tilted toward a hike. The Canadian dollar fell to a 2026 low of 70 US cents in early October. For Calgary the channel is housing: the posted five-year rate has been 6.09% since May 2025, and a hike would arrive just as apartment supply peaks and condo prices are already falling.

Consumer stress: Alberta has the highest delinquency rate in Canada

Share of non-mortgage credit balances 90 or more days past due, Q2 2026, %.

Why this mattersAlberta's 2.45% delinquency rate is the highest of any province, though it fell year over year while Ontario's rose; Calgary's is 2.20%. Alberta consumer insolvencies were flat in the year to June 2026 (19,019, −0.8%) while Canada's rose to the highest since 2009, but Alberta bankruptcies rose 7.9%, which trustees read as households arriving in deeper trouble. The Calgary Food Bank distributed 202,926 hampers in its 2025 fiscal year, with demand up 100% in two years and 31% of clients employed. The credit and food-bank data do not say who is under the most pressure; the labour-force data point to younger workers, whose unemployment rate in Calgary (16.3% in August 2026) is more than double the overall rate.

City finances: a 1.6% tax increase in 2026, and a $3.7-billion capital year

City of Calgary property tax increases approved for each budget year, %, with 2026 budget figures.

Why this mattersThe 2026 budget cut the planned 3.6% tax increase to 1.6% using investment income and reserves, while property-tax revenue still rose 3% on assessment growth from new construction. Operating spending is $4.6 billion, capital $3.7 billion (up from $1.5 billion in 2023) with $1.1 billion committed to water infrastructure after the 2024 and 2025 feeder-main failures, and long-term debt is $3.2 billion ($1,990 per resident). Non-residential properties pay 45% of property tax; office values fell again in the 2026 assessment roll, which is why Council has planned a slow shift of the tax share toward homeowners from 2027.

What it means for 2027

Every official 2026 inflation forecast (City 2.3%, province 2.6%) is already below the 3.0% actual year-to-date, and the Bank of Canada's July projection has national inflation near 2.5% in late 2026 and about 2% by early 2027. If oil stays near US$90, Calgary's headline rate stays above Canada's; if it falls back toward US$70, the energy base effect reverses by spring 2027 and falling rents pull Calgary below the national rate. Real wages should turn positive in 2027 for the first sustained period since 2020 as labour-force growth slows, provided inflation cooperates.

Calgary in context

Where Calgary is unusual, and where it is not

Choose a measure to rank Calgary against other Canadian metros, or index Calgary's own indicators against a base year to separate structural change from cyclical noise.

Population growth, July 2021 to July 2025

Measure

Reading

Calgary against its own history: what has changed structurally since 2014

Selected indicators indexed to a base year = 100. Pick the base year and the series. Growth in people, jobs and oil output against flat prices, wages and investment is the shape of the decade.

ReadingIndexed to 2014, oil production is up by half, housing starts 62%, the purpose-built rental stock 78%, population 32% and employment 26%, while the WTI price (−30%), non-residential investment (−22%) and real weekly earnings have not regained their 2014 levels; Alberta's real GDP is up 10%. Indexed to 2019, the pandemic trough and the 2022–25 surge dominate. Indexed to 2007, the two oil cycles line up almost exactly in output and almost nowhere else.

Relationships: pick two indicators and see whether they move together

Each point is a year, 2005–2025 where both series exist. The dashed line is an ordinary least-squares fit and r is the correlation coefficient. Correlation is not causation, and with twenty points a single boom year can dominate; use the lag option to test whether one series leads the other.

ReadingFour pairs show the mechanisms at work. The oil price against Calgary's unemployment rate is the tightest relationship in the data (r = −0.80 for 2011–2025): when oil falls, Calgary's unemployment rises within the year, which is the head-office channel at work. Calgary's population growth against housing starts shows the builders' lag: the correlation is 0.62 in the same year and 0.71 when starts are moved one year later, because construction follows arrivals. Net interprovincial migration against the oil price is loose in the same year (0.54) and a little tighter a year later (0.59), because people move after the jobs appear. And the oil price explains the provincial budget balance less well than the headlines suggest (0.52), because the surpluses of 2005–08 and 2021–24 came at very different prices: spending, not just revenue, sets the balance.

Outlook 2027

Base case, the two tails, and what would move the economy between them

The consensus for 2027 is unremarkable growth of 2.3–2.5% in Alberta and 2.4% in the Calgary region, unemployment near 6%, population growth under 2% and a housing market tilted to buyers and renters. The distribution around that consensus is wide, and most of its width is the price of oil.

Base case

Digestion: 2.4% growth, 6.2% unemployment, surplus housing

Real GDP: Alberta 2.3–2.5% (TD, ATB, Treasury Board); Calgary region 2.4% (City of Calgary).
Unemployment averages 6.2% in Calgary and 5.9–6.2% in Alberta; employment growth slows to 1–2%.
Population growth 1.7–1.8%; interprovincial inflow continues at about half the 2023 average.
Housing starts fall to about 21,000 (CMHC); vacancy 6.2%; benchmark prices up under 2%.
WTI in the US$65–75 range as Gulf disruptions fade (fiscal plan: US$67; AER: US$73). The 2026-27 surplus narrows, and 2027-28 returns to a deficit near the plan's $7.6 billion unless oil averages well above US$67.
Bank of Canada at 2.25–2.50%, with one hike in the first half of 2027 the more likely path; Calgary inflation back toward 2.5% by spring 2027 and near 2% by mid-2027.

Upside scenario

Investment cycle starts early

Pacific Link clears its September 2027 conditions on time and South Bow's Prairie Connector reaches a final investment decision; engineering and procurement work lands in Calgary from 2027.
LNG Canada Phase 2 and the Meta/Greenlight complex ramp construction; Alberta non-residential investment exceeds its 2014 nominal peak.
Oil holds above US$80 on persistent Gulf constraints; resource revenue stays near $23 billion; corporate profits lift head-office hiring.
Interprovincial migration rebuilds toward 40,000 a year as Ontario and BC housing stays unaffordable, absorbing Calgary's apartment surplus by 2028.
ATB Economics (October 1, 2026) estimates that Pacific Link, with the upstream and carbon-capture spending tied to it, could lift Alberta growth from about 2.4% to 3–4% in 2028 and 2029.

Downside scenario

Oil retreats and policy risk rises

WTI falls back to US$55–60 as supply normalizes; each US$10 costs the province about $7 billion, and the 2027-28 deficit widens from the planned $7.6 billion to $12–16 billion.
The July 2027 annual review of the Canada–US–Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA) brings wider US tariffs; non-energy exporters (lumber, metals, agri-food) and Alberta's steel-dependent projects are hit.
A contested referendum aftermath raises Alberta's risk premium; the University of Calgary School of Public Policy's "difficult transition" scenario implies employment 10% lower within five years in the extreme case.
The Bank of Canada hikes into an oil-driven inflation overshoot while apartment completions peak; condo prices fall further and construction employment contracts.
Federal temporary-resident limits tighten again, pushing population growth below 1% and household formation below 10,000.

Scenario explorer: change four assumptions and see how 2027 could look

An illustrative model, not a forecast. Each output starts from the published base case and moves by a documented rule of thumb. Open the methodology panel to see every coefficient and its source.

Model assumptions and sources

Each output starts from a published base case and adds linear adjustments. Coefficients are rules of thumb chosen to match the orders of magnitude observed in Calgary over 2014–2026; they are not estimated from a model and should be read as "roughly".

Output	Base case (source)	Adjustments and the evidence behind them
Resource revenue and budget balance, 2027-28	$16.2B revenue, −$7.6B balance at WTI US$67 (Alberta Budget 2026 fiscal plan)	+$680M per US$1 of WTI (Budget 2026 sensitivity, National Bank summary). Ignores the heavy-oil differential ($670M per US$1), the exchange rate ($440M per cent) and any spending response.
Calgary unemployment rate, 2027	6.2% (City of Calgary Spring 2026 outlook, Calgary Economic Region)	+0.6 pt per 1 pt of extra population growth (in 2024, 6.9% labour-force growth against 4.7% employment growth raised the rate about 2 points); −0.03 pt per US$1 of WTI (the 2015–16 crash of about US$45 raised Calgary's rate 4 points, including a capital-spending collapse that is unlikely to repeat; the coefficient is set at a third of that); +0.2 pt per 1 pt of policy rate (standard macro rule of thumb); −0.08 pt per 1,000 housing starts (roughly one direct construction job-year per start against a 1.2-million labour force).
Calgary region real GDP growth, 2027	2.4% (City of Calgary Spring 2026)	+0.03 pt per US$1 of WTI (Alberta forecasts moved about 0.5 pt for a US$13 change in the 2026 assumption); +0.6 pt per 1 pt of population growth (per-capita output grows less than population); −0.4 pt per 1 pt of policy rate after a year; +0.15 pt per 1,000 starts (about $350M of residential investment per 1,000 starts against a $129B metro economy, with import leakage).
Rental vacancy, October 2027	6.2% (CMHC Summer 2026 forecast)	−1.2 pt per 1 pt of population growth (1 pt of growth is about 18,000 people or 7,000 households, a third of them renters, against a 68,000-unit purpose-built stock; dampened for condo and secondary rentals); +0.05 pt per 1,000 starts (most 2027 starts complete after October 2027, so the effect is small).
Mortgage payment	$500,000 principal, 25-year amortization, Canadian semi-annual compounding	Mortgage rate = policy rate + 1.75 points, a rough spread for discounted five-year fixed rates (posted rate 6.09% at a 2.25% policy rate; discounted rates are about 2 points lower).

Not modelled: feedback from unemployment to migration, from rents to migration, from the exchange rate to anything, lags beyond one year, the referendum, tariffs, and the construction timing of Pacific Link or LNG Canada Phase 2.

The model is linear and static: it does not capture feedback between variables, lags longer than a year, or the non-linear effects of a recession or a referendum shock. Its purpose is to make the relative sizes of the channels visible, not to produce a point estimate.

What could change the outlook

The variables that matter most for 2027, with the direction they are currently pointing and the evidence from this edition.

Variable	Current reading	Why it matters for Calgary	Pointing
Oil price (WTI, WCS discount)	WTI US$91 on Oct 2; fiscal plan US$73.50 for 2026-27, US$67 for 2027-28; discount US$12–16	$680M of provincial revenue per US$1; head-office profits; the single largest swing factor for Alberta GDP	Above plan
Export capacity decisions	Pacific Link listed Oct 1, 2026 (conditions by Sept 2027); LNG Canada Phase 2 final investment decision Sept 28; Prairie Connector decision due mid-2027	A $35–44B pipeline plus $33B LNG expansion would start a Calgary-centred engineering and financing cycle from 2027–28	Improving
Federal immigration policy	380,000 permanent residents a year; temporary arrivals cut to 385,000 (2026); non-permanent residents below 5% of the population by 2027	Sets Calgary's population growth (1.7% forecast), household formation and labour-force growth	Tightening
Interprovincial migration	Alberta +5,893 in Q2 2026, still first among provinces but about half the 2023 quarterly average	The flow that absorbs housing surplus and fills the trades; depends on the affordability gap with Ontario and BC	Steady
Bank of Canada policy rate	2.25% since Oct 2025; Oct 28 decision priced as a coin flip; Fed hiked Sept 16	Mortgage costs for a market with record apartment supply; business investment; the Canadian dollar (70 US cents)	Hike risk
US trade policy and CUSMA	US declined to extend CUSMA at the July 2026 review; 50% tariffs on a broad basket from Aug 22; annual reviews to 2036	Most Alberta energy is understood to enter tariff-free under the agreement; lumber, chemicals, metals and machinery exports are exposed	Worsening
Referendum of Oct 19, 2026	Polling shows a large majority for remaining; the vote is on whether to start a separation process	Investor and migrant uncertainty; the School of Public Policy's scenarios range from negligible to severe depending on the aftermath	Event risk
Housing supply pipeline	25,049 units under construction; starts −19% year to date; vacancy forecast 6.2% in 2027	Rents and condo prices, construction employment, City permit revenue	Surplus
Electricity for data centres	More than 16 GW requested; 1,200 MW allowed before 2028; Meta's $13B investment decision taken	Gas demand, turbine and construction supply chains, provincial levy revenue; mostly outside Calgary	Building

Watchlist: ten indicators for the next 6–18 months

Latest reading, what would confirm the base case, and the next release date.

Indicator

Latest

What to watch for

Next release

Calgary unemployment rate (StatCan LFS)

6.7% (Aug 2026)

Base case: drifts to 6.2% through 2027. Above 7.5% would signal a renewed supply shock or an oil-driven hiring freeze.

Sept data: Oct 9, 2026; monthly

WTI and the WCS discount

US$91; discount US$12–16

Fiscal plan needs about US$65 for the rest of 2026-27. The 2027-28 plan already shows a $7.6B deficit at US$67 (break-even about US$77); below US$60 it widens past $12B. A discount above US$20 means pipelines are full again.

Daily; Alberta Q2 fiscal update late Nov 2026

Bank of Canada rate decision

2.25%, seven holds

A hold on Oct 28 keeps the base case, which has one hike in the first half of 2027. A hike on Oct 28 would land as apartment supply peaks.

Oct 28, 2026 (with MPR); Dec 10

Calgary CPI

3.8% (Aug 2026)

Base case: back toward 2.5% by spring 2027 as the energy base effect fades. Persistent 3.5%+ with rents falling means a wage squeeze into 2027.

Sept CPI: Oct 19, 2026; monthly

Alberta population and migration

+76,419 y/y; interprovincial +5,893 (Q2)

Interprovincial inflow of 5,000+ a quarter keeps housing absorption going; a negative quarter would be the first since 2021.

Q3 estimates: Dec 2026; CMA estimates: Jan 2027

Housing starts and under-construction inventory (CMHC)

15,077 Jan–Aug (−19%); 25,049 under way

Base case: 22,000 for 2026, 21,000 for 2027. A three-month average below 1,500 starts a month would signal a sharper correction.

Monthly, mid-month

CMHC rental vacancy and rents

5.0% (Oct 2025); asking rents −4.5%

Base case: 5.9% (2026), 6.2% (2027). Above 6.5% would push average rents down outright, not just asking rents.

Rental Market Report: Dec 2026

Pacific Link and Pathways milestones

National-interest listing Oct 1, 2026

Pathways definitive agreements due Nov 15, 2026; Pacific Link conditions document by Sept 1, 2027; South Bow Prairie Connector FID mid-2027.

Nov 15, 2026; Sept 1, 2027

CUSMA annual review and US tariffs

50% tariffs on a broad basket since Aug 22, 2026

The July 2027 review decides whether energy stays exempt; escalation would hit lumber, chemicals, machinery and steel-dependent projects.

July 1, 2027

Alberta referendum result and aftermath

Vote Oct 19, 2026

A decisive "remain" result removes a risk premium; a close or contested result would show up first in interprovincial migration and bond spreads.

Oct 19, 2026

Methodology and sources

How to read this edition

Every chart names its source, geography, unit and period. Where a figure is estimated, forecast or derived by this publication from published data, it is labelled. Where authoritative sources disagree, the disagreement is listed rather than resolved silently.

Four geographies

City of Calgary: The municipality. 1,558,700 residents in 2025 (City estimate; the civic census ended in 2019). CREB prices and City budget figures use this boundary.
Calgary CMA: The census metropolitan area: the city plus Airdrie, Chestermere, Cochrane, Okotoks, High River, Rocky View and Foothills counties and others. 1,836,012 on July 1, 2025. Statistics Canada labour force, population and CMHC housing data use this boundary.
Calgary Economic Region: Statistics Canada economic region 4830, the CMA plus surrounding rural districts (about 1.95 million). Used by the City of Calgary's labour reviews and economic outlook, including its GDP estimates.
Alberta: 5,101,050 on July 1, 2026. Used where no metro series exists: GDP by industry, employment by industry, exports, oil production, provincial finances, CPI components.

Measurement notes

Unemployment rates for CMAs are three-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted (Statistics Canada 14-10-0380-01). The City of Calgary's Economic Region figures are three-month averages, not seasonally adjusted. Provincial and national headline rates are single-month, seasonally adjusted. The three are never spliced into one series; where they appear together, the legend says which is which.
Annual averages marked "derived" are means of monthly values computed by this publication, not official annual averages. Official spot values are quoted where they exist (Calgary 2023: 6.1%; 2024: 7.6%).
GDP is industry-based GDP at basic prices in chained 2017 dollars (36-10-0402-01). Chained-dollar industry shares are approximate because components are not additive. The City of Calgary's regional GDP is a model estimate; Statistics Canada publishes no metro GDP series for recent years.
Housing starts and completions are CMHC actual units, not seasonally adjusted, for the CMA. The City of Calgary's housing figures cover the city proper and run about 4,000 starts a year lower.
Rents and vacancy from CMHC's October survey are shown on the combined row-and-apartment basis available as a long history; CMHC's headline Rental Market Report uses apartments only (5.0% vacancy in 2025 versus 4.9% combined).
Oil production from the Alberta Economic Dashboard is on a marketable basis and sits below the AER's raw bitumen figures (4,150 versus 4,266 thousand barrels a day in 2025). Both are internally consistent; the basis is stated on each chart.
Downtown office vacancy uses CBRE's definition throughout. Avison Young and Altus Group figures are quoted only with attribution.
Employment by industry for Alberta uses August values from the unadjusted monthly series (14-10-0022-01) because the Alberta Economic Dashboard relays single months; August-to-August comparisons are seasonally consistent but single-month values are noisy.
Population estimates are the September 23, 2026 vintage for Alberta (which revised non-permanent-resident counts) and the January 14, 2026 vintage for CMAs. Census counts are never mixed with estimates.

Where sources disagree

Alberta 2024 GDP growth: 2.7% (first estimate, May 2025) versus 3.0% (revised, May 2026). This edition uses the revision.
Oil and gas share of Alberta GDP: 18.6% in chained dollars versus 12–32% in current dollars, because nominal shares embed the oil price. Both are shown.
Calgary unemployment, August 2026: 6.7% (StatCan CMA, 3-month SA) versus 6.4% (the City's own single-month measure). This edition uses 6.7%.
Energy employment: annual-average LFS (170,100 in 2014 to about 161,000 in 2024) versus August values (179,500 to 135,800 in 2026) versus payroll data (direct extraction roughly 57,000 to 50,000). All point the same way; the chart uses August values from a single table.
The 2026 oil shock's start: the Alberta fiscal update dates the price rise to Middle East conflict in the spring; monthly price data show WTI jumping in March 2026 (from US$64.51 in February to US$91.38), after strikes in early March.
Alberta Q1 2026-27 WTI average: "US$93" (Business Council of Alberta, The Hub) versus "just above US$88" (Global News). Quoted as US$88–93.
Head offices: Calgary Economic Development's FP500 list counts 68–70 Calgary head offices among Canada's 500 largest companies by revenue (105 including the next 300); Statistics Canada's head-office counts by CMA were not available for this edition.
Median household income: StatCan's 2021 Census chart gives $87,000 after tax for the Calgary CMA (2020); the Census Profile gives $100,000 before tax; Calgary Economic Development cites $107,400. The $87,000 after-tax figure is used for the cross-city comparison because it comes from one table.

Not available, or not used, in this edition

Calgary metro GDP by industry (Statistics Canada 36-10-0468 could not be accessed); a long employment-by-industry series for the Calgary CMA (14-10-0098-01); Alberta resource revenue for 2023-24 and 2024-25; a long CREB price history before 2024; Teranet house price indices; official annual unemployment rates for non-Alberta CMAs. These are noted so that readers know which comparisons rest on provincial rather than metro data.

Sources

Sources are current to October 3, 2026. Statistics Canada tables were accessed through the Alberta Economic Dashboard's data service, which relays current-vintage StatCan tables (table numbers are given on each chart), and through The Daily and Census releases.